Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-141, DraftKings) · confidence 54.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.3 pts · 0u
Justin Wrobleski (3.31 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) vs Eduardo Rodriguez (2.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP).
Projected 4.8–4.6; sim total 9.4 against a 9 line; park factor 1.05.
Market at board time: moneyline -143 / +128 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -141 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.0% vs de-vigged market 57.3%: 6.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.318 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.003, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (-112, LowVig.ag) · model 57.7% · edge +4.9 pts · divergence +6.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -143 / +128 | -143 / +129 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (-112, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.89u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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