Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs ML (-152, DraftKings) · confidence 57.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.7 pts · 0u
Matthew Boyd (3.59 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) vs Randy Dobnak (1.16 ERA, 1.19 WHIP).
Projected 5–4.3; sim total 9.3 against a 10.5 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline -161 / +142 (consensus at board time) · total 10.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -152 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.4% vs de-vigged market 59.9%: 4.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 57.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Randy Dobnak under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.334 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.019, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 95°F at first pitch: run environment x1.100. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 10.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 57.7% · edge +4.6 pts · divergence +6.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -161 / +142 | -161 / +143 |
| Total | 10.5 | 10.5 (o-107 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 10.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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