Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-102, FanDuel) · confidence 50.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.4 pts · 0u
Ian Seymour (4.27 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) vs Emerson Hancock (3.33 ERA, 1.07 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–3.9; sim total 7.8 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.92.
Market at board time: moneyline -105 / -106 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -102 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.4% vs de-vigged market 49.9%: 0.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.290 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.025, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 7.5 (-110, BetRivers) · model 54.6% · edge +2.2 pts · divergence +1.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -105 / -106 | -105 / -106 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o+102 / u-123) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 7.5 (-110, BetRivers) — WIN (+0.91u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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