Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 run line · confidence 46.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.8 pts · 0u
Connor Prielipp (4.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) vs Jacob Misiorowski (1.63 ERA, 0.73 WHIP).
Projected 3.7–5; sim total 8.7 against a 7 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +220 / -255 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -245 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to MIL -1.5 (covers 46.9% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 60.8% vs de-vigged market 69.7%: 8.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 46.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.311 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.004, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +220 / -255 | +226 / -260 |
| Total | 7 | 7 (o-115 / u-102) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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