Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Washington Nationals ML (-104, FanDuel) · confidence 53.5% of 10,000 sims · edge +2.5 pts · 0u
Brady Singer (4.67 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) vs Brad Lord (3.81 ERA, 1.20 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–5.2; sim total 9.5 against a 9 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline -105 / -107 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -104 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.7% vs de-vigged market 50.2%: 6.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Rule 4 flag: Brad Lord under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.323 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.008, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 91°F at first pitch: run environment x1.086. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.701) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -105 / -107 | +105 / -121 |
| Total | 9 | 8.5 (o-116 / u-112) |
Capture caveat, verbatim: first capture was after first pitch — weak close.
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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