New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-138, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 55.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.2 pts · 0u
Sean Manaea (4.33 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) vs Jared Jones (4.02 ERA, 1.11 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.6; sim total 8.7 against a 8 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +125 / -142 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -138 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.7% vs de-vigged market 56.9%: 2.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Jared Jones under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.320 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.005, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 81°F at first pitch: run environment x1.044. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +125 / -142 | +125 / -142 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-115 / u-107) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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