Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 run line · confidence 42.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.6 pts · 0u
Shane Bieber (5.11 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) vs Jesús Luzardo (3.36 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.7; sim total 8.7 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.01.
Market at board time: moneyline +195 / -225 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -214 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to PHI -1.5 (covers 42.8% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.0% vs de-vigged market 67.1%: 11.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 42.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Shane Bieber under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.294 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.021, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 92°F at first pitch: run environment x1.087. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +195 / -225 | +200 / -230 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-108 / u-112) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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