Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Minnesota Twins ML (-110, FanDuel) · confidence 50.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.8 pts · 0u
Brandon Young (3.43 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) vs Bailey Ober (4.45 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–4.5; sim total 9.1 against a 9.5 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +102 / -112 (consensus at board time) · total 9.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -110 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.5% vs de-vigged market 51.6%: 2.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.287 vs league 0.312 (gap +0.025, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 90°F at first pitch: run environment x1.081 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (61% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +102 / -112 | +100 / -115 |
| Total | 9.5 | 8.5 (o-120 / u+101) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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