The slate for Tuesday, August 11, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 7 on watch
15 games on the slate, 13 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 2 scratched by rule. 7 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Monday, August 10, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 5-3 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:40 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Tanner Bibee (3.85) vs Drew Anderson (4.01) | 3.9–4.5 | 8.4 / 8 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Paul Skenes (3.96) vs Eury Pérez (3.61) | 4.3–4.1 | 8.4 / 7 |
| 7:05 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Bryan Woo (4.31) vs Ryan Weathers (3.79) | 3.9–4.5 | 8.4 / 8 |
| 7:07 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Patrick Sandoval (3.38) vs Dylan Cease (2.28) | 3.9–3.9 | 7.8 / 7 |
| 7:15 PM ET | New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Nolan McLean (3.51) vs Martín Pérez (3.14) | 4–4.5 | 8.5 / 8.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Brandon Young (3.43) vs Bailey Ober (4.45) | 4.6–4.5 | 9.1 / 9.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Nick Lodolo (4.60) vs Sean Burke (3.08) | 4–5.1 | 9.2 / 7.5 |
| 7:45 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Cristopher Sánchez (2.65) vs Andre Pallante (3.63) | 4.2–4.1 | 8.3 / 8 |
| 9:38 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Cody Bradford (0.00) vs Ryan Johnson (7.11) | 4.8–4.4 | 9.1 / 9 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Tomoyuki Sugano (4.51) vs Mitch Bratt (3.90) | 5–5.2 | 10.2 / 9.5 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Nick Martinez (2.65) vs Mason Barnett (5.56) | 5.2–4.3 | 9.4 / 10.5 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Kyle Harrison (2.84) vs Walker Buehler (5.07) | 4.5–3.8 | 8.3 / 7.5 |
| 10:10 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Michael Wacha (3.44) vs Blake Snell (12.00) | 4.3–5 | 9.3 / 8.5 |
| 6:45 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for WSH inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 9:45 PM ET | Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for SF inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-116, BetOnline.ag) — Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres, 9:40 PM ET. Edge +1.2 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.626. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers. Michael Wacha (3.44 ERA) against Blake Snell (12.00) is a 8.6-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox. The sim lands on 9.2 runs against a 7.5 line — 1.7 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The argument: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers. Raw model and de-vigged market disagree by 14.5 points here. Our standing rule: past 12 points the market is assumed to know something we don't, and the game is a hold, not a bigger bet. Under it, a disagreement is just that — logged on the card, sized by the gates.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingCleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers — Under 8 (-104, LowVig.ag) · model 53.8% · edge +2.9 ptsmarket-provingBoston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays — Under 7 (-104, BetRivers) · model 54.3% · edge +3.3 ptsmarket-provingCincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox — Over 7.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 58.5% · edge +5.5 ptsmarket-provingTexas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels — Under 9 (+100, LowVig.ag) · model 58.1% · edge +8.1 ptsmarket-provingTampa Bay Rays @ Athletics — Under 10.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 55.7% · edge +2.7 ptsedge-bandMilwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres — Milwaukee Brewers ML (-116, BetOnline.ag) · model 54.9% · edge +1.2 ptsR8-holdKansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-250, FanDuel) · model 43.4% · edge -8.1 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.