Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-164, FanDuel) · confidence 59.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.9 pts · 0u
Nick Martinez (2.65 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) vs Mason Barnett (5.56 ERA, 1.38 WHIP).
Projected 5.2–4.3; sim total 9.4 against a 10.5 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline -168 / +148 (consensus at board time) · total 10.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -164 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 57.6% vs de-vigged market 60.9%: 3.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 59.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Mason Barnett under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.309 vs league 0.312 (gap +0.003, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 87°F at first pitch: run environment x1.069 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (66% air outs), away SP fly-ball (59% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 10.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 55.7% · edge +2.7 pts · divergence +4.7 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -168 / +148 | -184 / +162 |
| Total | 10.5 | 10.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 10.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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