Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Toronto Blue Jays ML (-136, DraftKings) · confidence 53.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.2 pts · 0u
Patrick Sandoval (3.38 ERA, 1.67 WHIP) vs Dylan Cease (2.28 ERA, 1.04 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–3.9; sim total 7.8 against a 7 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +125 / -138 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -136 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.2% vs de-vigged market 56.6%: 6.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Patrick Sandoval under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.361 vs league 0.312 (gap -0.049, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 7 (-104, BetRivers) · model 54.3% · edge +3.3 pts · divergence +4.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +125 / -138 | -127 / +109 |
| Total | 7 | 7.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 7 (-104, BetRivers) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date