Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago White Sox ML (-148, FanDuel) · confidence 59.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.3 pts · 0u
Nick Lodolo (4.60 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) vs Sean Burke (3.08 ERA, 1.12 WHIP).
Projected 4–5.1; sim total 9.2 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline +138 / -157 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -148 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 59.4% vs de-vigged market 59.2%: 0.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 59.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.312 vs league 0.312 (gap +0.000, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 76°F at first pitch: run environment x1.023. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 58.5% · edge +5.5 pts · divergence +7.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +138 / -157 | +124 / -144 |
| Total | 7.5 | 9 (o-105 / u-114) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.89u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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