Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Texas Rangers ML (-136, FanDuel) · confidence 54.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.8 pts · 0u
Cody Bradford (0.00 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) vs Ryan Johnson (7.11 ERA, 1.60 WHIP).
Projected 4.8–4.4; sim total 9.1 against a 9 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -140 / +126 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -136 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.8% vs de-vigged market 56.9%: 4.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Cody Bradford, Ryan Johnson under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.277 vs league 0.312 (gap +0.035, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 80°F at first pitch: run environment x1.038. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (+100, LowVig.ag) · model 58.1% · edge +8.1 pts · divergence +9.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -140 / +126 | -148 / +134 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (+100, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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