Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-168, FanDuel) · confidence 56.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.8 pts · 0u
Tomoyuki Sugano (4.51 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs Mitch Bratt (3.90 ERA, 1.52 WHIP).
Projected 5–5.2; sim total 10.2 against a 9.5 line; park factor 1.05.
Market at board time: moneyline +156 / -173 (consensus at board time) · total 9.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -168 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.9% vs de-vigged market 61.9%: 10.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Mitch Bratt under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.336 vs league 0.312 (gap -0.024, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +156 / -173 | +149 / -173 |
| Total | 9.5 | 9.5 (o-108 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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