Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-165, DraftKings) · confidence 55.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.3 pts · 0u
Ryan Feltner (5.71 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) vs Merrill Kelly (4.88 ERA, 1.47 WHIP).
Projected 5.2–5.4; sim total 10.6 against a 9.5 line; park factor 1.05.
Market at board time: moneyline +148 / -170 (consensus at board time) · total 9.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -165 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.9% vs de-vigged market 61.0%: 10.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.330 vs league 0.310 (gap -0.020, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 9.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 51.3% · edge +2.0 pts · divergence +3.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +148 / -170 | +149 / -168 |
| Total | 9.5 | 9 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 9.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.03u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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