The slate for Wednesday, August 12, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 9 on watch
15 games on the slate, 13 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 2 scratched by rule. 9 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Tuesday, August 11, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 3-4 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:40 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Shane Baz (3.76) vs Zebby Matthews (5.23) | 4.7–4.4 | 9.1 / 9 |
| 2:15 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Zack Wheeler (2.69) vs Kyle Leahy (3.45) | 4.2–4.2 | 8.3 / 8 |
| 3:05 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Drew Rasmussen (2.75) vs Jack Perkins (7.04) | 5.3–4.1 | 9.4 / 9.5 |
| 3:40 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Ryan Feltner (5.71) vs Merrill Kelly (4.88) | 5.2–5.4 | 10.6 / 9.5 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Dustin May (4.30) vs Robbie Ray (3.24) | 4.3–4 | 8.3 / 8 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Foster Griffin (3.31) vs Framber Valdez (4.17) | 3.9–4.4 | 8.3 / 8 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Carmen Mlodzinski (3.51) vs Janson Junk (4.63) | 4.1–4.2 | 8.3 / 8 |
| 7:05 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Bryce Miller (3.08) vs Will Warren (4.18) | 3.6–4.5 | 8.1 / 8.5 |
| 7:07 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Ranger Suarez (3.32) vs José Soriano (3.24) | 4.1–3.7 | 7.7 / 7 |
| 7:15 PM ET | New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Zac Thornton (2.52) vs Tyler Mahle (4.83) | 4.2–4.5 | 8.7 / 8.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Rhett Lowder (5.26) vs Luis Castillo (5.30) | 4.4–5.1 | 9.5 / 9 |
| 10:10 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Daniel Lynch IV (2.45) vs Eric Lauer (4.89) | 4.5–5 | 9.5 / 9 |
| 10:10 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Cal Quantrill (3.56) vs George Klassen (7.27) | 4.1–4.3 | 8.4 / 9 |
| 3:45 PM ET | Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for SF inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 6:45 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for WSH inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: New York Yankees ML (-124, DraftKings) — Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees, 7:05 PM ET. Edge +1.0 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.587. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics. Drew Rasmussen (2.75 ERA) against Jack Perkins (7.04) is a 4.3-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The cold bats: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins. Rule 6 fired — the road offense's trailing-14-day wOBA sits far enough under league that the engine taxes its scoring 8%, a size set by a full-season backtest, printed on the card.
- The total: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks. The sim lands on 10.6 runs against a 9.5 line — 1.1 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingColorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks — Over 9.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 51.3% · edge +2.0 ptsmarket-provingMilwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres — Under 8 (+100, LowVig.ag) · model 55.6% · edge +5.6 ptsmarket-provingCleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers — Under 8 (-102, FanDuel) · model 56.1% · edge +5.6 ptsmarket-provingPittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins — Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 57.1% · edge +6.6 ptsmarket-provingSeattle Mariners @ New York Yankees — Under 8.5 (+105, BetUS) · model 53.4% · edge +4.7 ptsmarket-provingBoston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays — Under 7 (+105, BetMGM) · model 54.6% · edge +5.8 ptsmarket-provingKansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Under 9 (-108, FanDuel) · model 56.9% · edge +5.0 ptsR8-holdKansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-205, FanDuel) · model 41.8% · edge -7.6 ptsmarket-provingTexas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels — Under 9 (-112, BetRivers) · model 63.8% · edge +11.0 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.