Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-156, FanDuel) · confidence 55.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.8 pts · 0u
Zack Wheeler (2.69 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) vs Kyle Leahy (3.45 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4.2; sim total 8.3 against a 8 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline -161 / +144 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -156 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.2% vs de-vigged market 60.1%: 9.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.334 vs league 0.310 (gap -0.024, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 99°F at first pitch: run environment x1.117. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -161 / +144 | -163 / +145 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-103 / u-117) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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