Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 run line · confidence 46.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.5 pts · 0u
Drew Rasmussen (2.75 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) vs Jack Perkins (7.04 ERA, 1.45 WHIP).
Projected 5.3–4.1; sim total 9.4 against a 9.5 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline -215 / +186 (consensus at board time) · total 9.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -205 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to TB -1.5 (covers 46.5% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 59.3% vs de-vigged market 66.1%: 6.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 46.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.331 vs league 0.310 (gap -0.020, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 84°F at first pitch: run environment x1.058. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -215 / +186 | -220 / +192 |
| Total | 9.5 | 9.5 (o-102 / u-118) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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