Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox ML (-152, BetUS) · confidence 58.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.8 pts · 0u
Payton Tolle (3.20 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) vs Max Scherzer (7.25 ERA, 1.53 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–3.7; sim total 8.4 against a 8 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -155 / +139 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -152 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 57.8% vs de-vigged market 59.2%: 1.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 58.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Max Scherzer under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.357 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.042, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-110, FanDuel) · model 56.8% · edge +4.5 pts · divergence +6.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -155 / +139 | -142 / +125 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-110, FanDuel) — WIN (+0.91u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date