The slate for Thursday, August 13, 2026: 9 games, no qualifying plays, 7 on watch
9 games on the slate, 9 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 7 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Wednesday, August 12, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 5-4 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:10 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Parker Messick (2.57) vs Keider Montero (3.38) | 3.8–4.2 | 8 / 8 |
| 1:10 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Braxton Ashcraft (4.08) vs Tyler Phillips (3.47) | 4.1–4.2 | 8.2 / 8 |
| 1:35 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Logan Gilbert (3.42) vs Max Fried (2.88) | 3.7–4.5 | 8.2 / 7.5 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Andrew Abbott (3.92) vs Davis Martin (4.17) | 4.2–5 | 9.2 / 8.5 |
| 3:07 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Payton Tolle (3.20) vs Max Scherzer (7.25) | 4.6–3.7 | 8.4 / 8 |
| 4:05 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Kevin Gausman (4.29) vs Cade Cavalli (3.57) | 4.9–4.9 | 9.7 / 8.5 |
| 7:30 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Aaron Nola (5.47) vs Taj Bradley (3.76) | 4.4–5 | 9.4 / 8.5 |
| 10:07 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Jacob deGrom (3.87) vs Walbert Ureña (2.83) | 3.8–4.2 | 8 / 7.5 |
| 10:10 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Shane Drohan (3.87) vs Roki Sasaki (4.54) | 4.7–4.6 | 9.4 / 8.5 |
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Detroit Tigers ML (+104, FanDuel) — Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers, 1:10 PM ET. Edge +1.9 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.768. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays. Payton Tolle (3.20 ERA) against Max Scherzer (7.25) is a 4.0-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The cold bats: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins. Rule 6 fired — the road offense's trailing-14-day wOBA sits far enough under league that the engine taxes its scoring 8%, a size set by a full-season backtest, printed on the card.
- The total: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals. The sim lands on 9.7 runs against a 8.5 line — 1.2 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingCleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers — Under 8 (-104, FanDuel) · model 57.8% · edge +6.8 ptsedge-bandCleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers — Detroit Tigers ML (+104, FanDuel) · model 50.9% · edge +1.9 ptsmarket-provingPittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins — Under 8 (-106, DraftKings) · model 58.5% · edge +7.1 ptsmarket-provingBoston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays — Under 8 (-110, FanDuel) · model 56.8% · edge +4.5 ptsmarket-provingChicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals — Over 8.5 (-115, BetMGM) · model 59.7% · edge +6.2 ptsedge-bandPhiladelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins — Minnesota Twins ML (-104, DraftKings) · model 52.6% · edge +1.6 ptsR8-holdTexas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels — Texas Rangers ML (-148, FanDuel) · model 52.2% · edge -7.5 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.