Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Minnesota Twins ML (-104, DraftKings) · confidence 52.6% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.6 pts · 0u
Aaron Nola (5.47 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) vs Taj Bradley (3.76 ERA, 1.25 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–5; sim total 9.4 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -104 / -107 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -104 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.9% vs de-vigged market 50.3%: 4.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.326 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.011, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): Minnesota Twins ML (-104, DraftKings) · model 52.6% · edge +1.6 pts · divergence +4.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -104 / -107 | -104 / -109 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): Minnesota Twins ML (-104, DraftKings) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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