Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs ML (-142, FanDuel) · confidence 53.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.0 pts · 0u
Kevin Gausman (4.29 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs Cade Cavalli (3.57 ERA, 1.30 WHIP).
Projected 4.9–4.9; sim total 9.7 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline -146 / +129 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -142 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.8% vs de-vigged market 57.6%: 7.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.352 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.038, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 93°F at first pitch: run environment x1.091. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (-115, BetMGM) · model 59.7% · edge +6.2 pts · divergence +7.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -146 / +129 | -146 / +130 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-115 / u-104) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (-115, BetMGM) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date