Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-119, DraftKings) · confidence 51.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.2 pts · 0u
Braxton Ashcraft (4.08 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) vs Tyler Phillips (3.47 ERA, 1.36 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.2; sim total 8.2 against a 8 line; park factor 0.95.
Market at board time: moneyline -122 / +109 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -119 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 48.7% vs de-vigged market 53.5%: 4.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.277 trails league 0.314 by 0.038 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-106, DraftKings) · model 58.5% · edge +7.1 pts · divergence +8.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -122 / +109 | -120 / +108 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-106, DraftKings) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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