Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-138, FanDuel) · confidence 52.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.1 pts · 0u
Shane Drohan (3.87 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) vs Roki Sasaki (4.54 ERA, 1.28 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–4.6; sim total 9.4 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +128 / -141 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -138 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 48.6% vs de-vigged market 57.2%: 8.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.300 vs league 0.314 (gap +0.014, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +128 / -141 | +152 / -180 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8 (o-105 / u-118) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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