Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Detroit Tigers ML (-126, FanDuel) · confidence 52.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.7 pts · 0u
Sean Newcomb (2.66 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) vs Jackson Jobe (0.00 ERA, 0.40 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.2; sim total 8.5 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +118 / -130 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -126 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 48.9% vs de-vigged market 55.2%: 6.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Jackson Jobe under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.320 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.006, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 86°F at first pitch: run environment x1.062. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8.5 (+102, LowVig.ag) · model 51.7% · edge +2.2 pts · divergence +3.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +118 / -130 | +118 / -132 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-120 / u+100) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8.5 (+102, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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