The slate for Friday, August 14, 2026: 14 games, no qualifying plays, 5 on watch
14 games on the slate, 11 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 3 scratched by rule. 5 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Thursday, August 13, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 3-4 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2:20 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Matthew Liberatore (5.15) vs Clay Holmes (2.86) | 4.2–5.4 | 9.6 / 8 |
| 6:10 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Sandy Alcantara (3.52) vs Chase Burns (2.61) | 4.3–4.3 | 8.7 / 8 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Jake Bennett (3.17) vs Bubba Chandler (4.26) | 4.3–4.3 | 8.6 / 8 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Sean Newcomb (2.66) vs Jackson Jobe (0.00) | 4.3–4.2 | 8.5 / 8.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Andrew Alvarez (3.76) vs Robert Stock (10.13) | 4.9–4.3 | 9.2 / 8.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Michael King (3.37) vs Gavin Williams (3.55) | 3.9–3.9 | 7.9 / 7.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Gerrit Cole (3.35) vs Shane Bieber (5.48) | 4.7–3.8 | 8.5 / 8 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | George Kirby (3.68) vs Peter Lambert (3.09) | 3.8–4.3 | 8.1 / 8 |
| 9:38 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Seth Lugo (4.41) vs Grayson Rodriguez (7.20) | 4.6–4.7 | 9.3 / 8.5 |
| 10:10 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Robert Gasser (4.57) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.65) | 4.3–4.7 | 9 / 7.5 |
| 10:15 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Kyle Freeland (6.63) vs Landen Roupp (4.22) | 4.3–4.5 | 8.8 / 7.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for BAL inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 7:15 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for ATL inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 9:40 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for ATH inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Washington Nationals ML (+106, FanDuel) — Washington Nationals @ New York Mets, 7:10 PM ET. Edge +2.9 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.625. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets. Andrew Alvarez (3.76 ERA) against Robert Stock (10.13) is a 6.4-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs. The sim lands on 9.6 runs against a 8 line — 1.6 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The argument: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers. Raw model and de-vigged market disagree by 9.8 points here. Our standing rule: past 12 points the market is assumed to know something we don't, and the game is a hold, not a bigger bet. Under it, a disagreement is just that — logged on the card, sized by the gates.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingSt. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs — Over 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 54.2% · edge +3.7 ptsmarket-provingBoston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates — Under 8 (-106, FanDuel) · model 54.0% · edge +2.5 ptsmarket-provingChicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers — Under 8.5 (+102, LowVig.ag) · model 51.7% · edge +2.2 ptsmarket-provingSeattle Mariners @ Houston Astros — Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 58.8% · edge +8.3 ptsmarket-provingMilwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Over 7.5 (-115, MyBookie.ag) · model 55.6% · edge +2.1 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.