Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Houston Astros ML (-119, DraftKings) · confidence 53.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.4 pts · 0u
George Kirby (3.68 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) vs Peter Lambert (3.09 ERA, 1.15 WHIP).
Projected 3.8–4.3; sim total 8.1 against a 8 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +109 / -122 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -119 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.4% vs de-vigged market 53.5%: 1.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.280 vs league 0.314 (gap +0.034, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 58.8% · edge +8.3 pts · divergence +9.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +109 / -122 | +105 / -123 |
| Total | 8 | 8.5 (o-107 / u-113) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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