Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Washington Nationals ML (+106, FanDuel) · confidence 51.5% of 10,000 sims · edge +2.9 pts · 0u
Andrew Alvarez (3.76 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) vs Robert Stock (10.13 ERA, 2.13 WHIP).
Projected 4.9–4.3; sim total 9.2 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.96.
Market at board time: moneyline +104 / -116 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line +106 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.3% vs de-vigged market 47.7%: 7.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Rule 4 flag: Robert Stock under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.317 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.003, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 83°F at first pitch: run environment x1.054. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.625) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +104 / -116 | +105 / -116 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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