St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs -1.5 run line · confidence 46.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.5 pts · 0u
Matthew Liberatore (5.15 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) vs Clay Holmes (2.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–5.4; sim total 9.6 against a 8 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline +158 / -180 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -172 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to CHC -1.5 (covers 46.8% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 59.2% vs de-vigged market 62.4%: 3.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 46.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Clay Holmes under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.319 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.004, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 77°F at first pitch: run environment x1.028. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 54.2% · edge +3.7 pts · divergence +5.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +158 / -180 | +165 / -185 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-105 / u-114) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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