San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Cleveland Guardians ML (-126, FanDuel) · confidence 52.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.5 pts · 0u
Michael King (3.37 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) vs Gavin Williams (3.55 ERA, 1.04 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–3.9; sim total 7.9 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +116 / -129 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -126 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.5% vs de-vigged market 54.9%: 5.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.342 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.028, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 80°F at first pitch: run environment x1.040. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +116 / -129 | +106 / -119 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7 (o-113 / u-107) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date