Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-176, DraftKings) · confidence 57.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.1 pts · 0u
Robert Gasser (4.57 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.65 ERA, 0.89 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.7; sim total 9 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +160 / -180 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -176 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.8% vs de-vigged market 62.6%: 9.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 57.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.303 vs league 0.314 (gap +0.012, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-115, MyBookie.ag) · model 55.6% · edge +2.1 pts · divergence +4.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +160 / -180 | -141 / +119 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-106 / u-114) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-115, MyBookie.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date