Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-142, FanDuel) · confidence 54.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.2 pts · 0u
Kyle Bradish (3.69 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) vs Ian Seymour (4.08 ERA, 1.13 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.5; sim total 8.9 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +130 / -146 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -142 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.2% vs de-vigged market 57.7%: 6.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.321 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.007, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+105, LowVig.ag) · model 54.9% · edge +6.2 pts · divergence +7.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +130 / -146 | +130 / -146 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o+101 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+105, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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