The slate for Saturday, August 15, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 11 on watch
15 games on the slate, 14 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 1 scratched by rule. 11 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Friday, August 14, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 0-5 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:10 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Anthony Kay (3.96) vs Troy Melton (1.46) | 4.1–4.5 | 8.5 / 7.5 |
| 2:20 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Michael McGreevy (3.64) vs Matthew Boyd (3.50) | 4.2–5 | 9.3 / 9 |
| 3:07 PM ET | New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Cam Schlittler (2.21) vs Braydon Fisher (3.54) | 4.3–3.5 | 7.9 / 7.5 |
| 4:05 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Michael Lorenzen (6.83) vs Logan Webb (3.59) | 4.3–4.6 | 8.9 / 7.5 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Brad Lord (3.79) vs Sean Manaea (4.13) | 4.6–4.4 | 9 / 8 |
| 6:10 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Kyle Bradish (3.69) vs Ian Seymour (4.08) | 4.4–4.5 | 8.9 / 7.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Ryan Gusto (4.78) vs Brady Singer (4.66) | 4.9–4.5 | 9.3 / 9 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Emerson Hancock (3.35) vs Hayden Wesneski (3.86) | 3.9–4.3 | 8.2 / 8.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Jesús Luzardo (3.32) vs Connor Prielipp (4.79) | 4.5–4.4 | 9 / 8 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Sonny Gray (2.79) vs Jared Jones (5.03) | 4.4–4.2 | 8.6 / 7.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Eduardo Rodriguez (2.70) vs Grant Holmes (3.47) | 4.3–4.4 | 8.8 / 9 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Jacob Misiorowski (1.76) vs Justin Wrobleski (3.44) | 4.5–4.1 | 8.6 / 7.5 |
| 9:38 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Randy Dobnak (2.00) vs Reid Detmers (4.00) | 4.2–4.4 | 8.7 / 8 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Athletics | MacKenzie Gore (4.43) vs J.T. Ginn (3.41) | 4.3–4.6 | 8.8 / 9.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for SD inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Miami Marlins ML (+100, BetRivers) — Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds, 6:40 PM ET. Edge +1.4 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.599. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants. Logan Webb (3.59 ERA) against Michael Lorenzen (6.83) is a 3.2-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants. The sim lands on 8.9 runs against a 7.5 line — 1.4 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The cold bats: Texas Rangers @ Athletics. Rule 6 fired — the road offense's trailing-14-day wOBA sits far enough under league that the engine taxes its scoring 8%, a size set by a full-season backtest, printed on the card.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingChicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers — Over 7.5 (-115, BetUS) · model 56.2% · edge +2.7 ptsmarket-provingSt. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs — Under 9 (-114, BetRivers) · model 56.3% · edge +3.0 ptsmarket-provingWashington Nationals @ New York Mets — Over 8 (+100, Bovada) · model 52.0% · edge +2.0 ptsmarket-provingBaltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays — Over 7.5 (+105, LowVig.ag) · model 54.9% · edge +6.2 ptsmarket-provingMiami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds — Under 9 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 53.2% · edge +3.9 ptsedge-bandMiami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds — Miami Marlins ML (+100, BetRivers) · model 51.3% · edge +1.4 ptsmarket-provingSeattle Mariners @ Houston Astros — Under 8.5 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 58.6% · edge +8.1 ptsmarket-provingArizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves — Under 9 (-104, LowVig.ag) · model 55.6% · edge +4.6 ptsmarket-provingMilwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Over 7.5 (+105, Bovada) · model 52.4% · edge +3.7 ptsmarket-provingKansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels — Under 8 (-102, BetMGM) · model 53.1% · edge +2.6 ptsmarket-provingTexas Rangers @ Athletics — Under 9.5 (-118, LowVig.ag) · model 59.0% · edge +4.9 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.