New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Yankees ML (-164, FanDuel) · confidence 59.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.9 pts · 0u
Cam Schlittler (2.21 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) vs Braydon Fisher (3.54 ERA, 1.23 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–3.5; sim total 7.9 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -168 / +150 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -164 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 57.4% vs de-vigged market 61.0%: 3.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 59.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.299 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.016, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -168 / +150 | -183 / +160 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o+100 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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