Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-121, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 53.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.0 pts · 0u
Jacob Misiorowski (1.76 ERA, 0.74 WHIP) vs Justin Wrobleski (3.44 ERA, 1.11 WHIP).
Projected 4.5–4.1; sim total 8.6 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -128 / +110 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -121 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.4% vs de-vigged market 54.1%: 0.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.292 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.023, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+105, Bovada) · model 52.4% · edge +3.7 pts · divergence +3.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -128 / +110 | +143 / -170 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-111 / u-107) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+105, Bovada) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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