Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Mets ML (-134, FanDuel) · confidence 51.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.4 pts · 0u
Brad Lord (3.79 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) vs Sean Manaea (4.13 ERA, 1.32 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–4.4; sim total 9 against a 8 line; park factor 0.96.
Market at board time: moneyline +122 / -135 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -134 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 47.6% vs de-vigged market 56.1%: 8.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.308 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.006, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 83°F at first pitch: run environment x1.052. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8 (+100, Bovada) · model 52.0% · edge +2.0 pts · divergence +3.1 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +122 / -135 | +122 / -135 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-106 / u-113) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8 (+100, Bovada) — WIN (+1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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