Texas Rangers @ Athletics
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Texas Rangers ML (-140, DraftKings) · confidence 52.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.6 pts · 0u
MacKenzie Gore (4.43 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs J.T. Ginn (3.41 ERA, 1.21 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.6; sim total 8.8 against a 9.5 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline -143 / +130 (consensus at board time) · total 9.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -140 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 48.0% vs de-vigged market 57.5%: 9.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.274 trails league 0.315 by 0.041 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 83°F at first pitch: run environment x1.053. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9.5 (-118, LowVig.ag) · model 59.0% · edge +4.9 pts · divergence +6.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -143 / +130 | -139 / +118 |
| Total | 9.5 | 10.5 (o-107 / u-111) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9.5 (-118, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.85u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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