Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Miami Marlins ML (+100, BetRivers) · confidence 51.3% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.4 pts · 0u
Ryan Gusto (4.78 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) vs Brady Singer (4.66 ERA, 1.43 WHIP).
Projected 4.9–4.5; sim total 9.3 against a 9 line; park factor 1.04.
Market at board time: moneyline -104 / -106 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (9 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line +100 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.9% vs de-vigged market 49.8%: 3.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Ryan Gusto under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.296 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.018, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 90°F at first pitch: run environment x1.081. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.599) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 53.2% · edge +3.9 pts · divergence +5.3 pts
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): Miami Marlins ML (+100, BetRivers) · model 51.3% · edge +1.4 pts · divergence +3.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -104 / -106 | -104 / -106 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-118 / u+100) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (+103, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
✅ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): Miami Marlins ML (+100, BetRivers) — WIN (+1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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