Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Detroit Tigers ML (-135, DraftKings) · confidence 54.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.6 pts · 0u
Anthony Kay (3.96 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) vs Troy Melton (1.46 ERA, 0.90 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.5; sim total 8.5 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +122 / -136 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -135 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.5% vs de-vigged market 56.1%: 2.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.332 vs league 0.315 (gap -0.017, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 83°F at first pitch: run environment x1.054. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-115, BetUS) · model 56.2% · edge +2.7 pts · divergence +4.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +122 / -136 | +123 / -137 |
| Total | 7.5 | 8 (o-104 / u-117) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-115, BetUS) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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