St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs -1.5 run line · confidence 45.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.2 pts · 0u
Michael McGreevy (3.64 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) vs Matthew Boyd (3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–5; sim total 9.3 against a 9 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline +160 / -178 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -176 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to CHC -1.5 (covers 45.0% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.8% vs de-vigged market 62.5%: 5.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 45.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.314 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.000, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 76°F at first pitch: run environment x1.026. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (-114, BetRivers) · model 56.3% · edge +3.0 pts · divergence +5.1 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +160 / -178 | +162 / -182 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o+100 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (-114, BetRivers) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date