Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Angels ML (-144, FanDuel) · confidence 55.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.7 pts · 0u
Randy Dobnak (2.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) vs Reid Detmers (4.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4.4; sim total 8.7 against a 8 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +134 / -150 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -144 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.1% vs de-vigged market 58.4%: 6.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Randy Dobnak under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.297 vs league 0.315 (gap +0.018, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 77°F at first pitch: run environment x1.026. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-102, BetMGM) · model 53.1% · edge +2.6 pts · divergence +3.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +134 / -150 | -120 / +101 |
| Total | 8 | 9.5 (o-1 / u-119) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-102, BetMGM) — WIN (+0.98u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date