Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Atlanta Braves ML (-122, FanDuel) · confidence 52.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.5 pts · 0u
Michael Soroka (2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) vs Bryce Elder (4.03 ERA, 1.25 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.4; sim total 8.8 against a 9 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +112 / -123 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -122 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.0% vs de-vigged market 53.9%: 2.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.340 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.027, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 92°F at first pitch: run environment x1.088 + 5% hot-day kicker vs away SP fly-ball (56% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +112 / -123 | +113 / -125 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-114 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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