The slate for Sunday, August 16, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 12 on watch
15 games on the slate, 15 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 12 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Saturday, August 15, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 4-7 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:15 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Trevor Rogers (4.21) vs Freddy Peralta (5.33) | 4.6–4.6 | 9.2 / 7.5 |
| 1:35 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Patrick Sandoval (3.30) vs Lake Bachar (3.97) | 4.4–4.4 | 8.8 / 8 |
| 1:35 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Michael Soroka (2.92) vs Bryce Elder (4.03) | 4.3–4.4 | 8.8 / 9 |
| 1:37 PM ET | New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Ryan Weathers (3.69) vs Dylan Cease (2.40) | 3.9–3.9 | 7.8 / 6.5 |
| 1:40 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Jake Irvin (5.79) vs Christian Scott (3.45) | 4.4–4.6 | 9 / 8.5 |
| 1:40 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Casey Mize (3.38) vs Tanner Bibee (3.99) | 4.2–3.8 | 8 / 8 |
| 1:40 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Sean Burke (2.99) vs Drew Anderson (3.91) | 4.4–4.1 | 8.5 / 8 |
| 1:40 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Eury Pérez (3.39) vs Nick Lodolo (4.86) | 4.8–4.3 | 9.1 / 8.5 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Andrew Painter (6.27) vs Dean Kremer (5.25) | 4.7–5 | 9.7 / 9.5 |
| 3:15 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Hunter Dobbins (3.40) vs Edward Cabrera (5.10) | 4.6–5 | 9.6 / 9 |
| 4:05 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Gabriel Hughes (5.61) vs Blade Tidwell (2.78) | 4.3–4.3 | 8.5 / 8 |
| 4:05 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Cody Bradford (2.38) vs Jacob Lopez (5.38) | 4.4–4.6 | 9 / 10 |
| 4:07 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Noah Cameron (4.45) vs Ryan Johnson (6.71) | 4.3–4.6 | 8.9 / 9 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Logan Henderson (2.88) vs Tarik Skubal (2.93) | 4.3–4.4 | 8.7 / 7.5 |
| 7:20 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Bryan Woo (4.15) vs Hunter Brown (3.68) | 4–4.4 | 8.4 / 7.5 |
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: San Diego Padres ML (-105, DraftKings) — San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians, 1:40 PM ET. Edge +1.1 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.681. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Texas Rangers @ Athletics. Cody Bradford (2.38 ERA) against Jacob Lopez (5.38) is a 3.0-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays. The sim lands on 9.2 runs against a 7.5 line — 1.7 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The cold bats: Texas Rangers @ Athletics. Rule 6 fired — the road offense's trailing-14-day wOBA sits far enough under league that the engine taxes its scoring 8%, a size set by a full-season backtest, printed on the card.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingBaltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays — Over 7.5 (+104, LowVig.ag) · model 57.3% · edge +8.3 ptsmarket-provingNew York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays — Over 6.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 57.0% · edge +4.0 ptsmarket-provingSan Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians — Under 8 (-105, Bovada) · model 57.1% · edge +5.9 ptsedge-bandSan Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians — San Diego Padres ML (-105, DraftKings) · model 52.3% · edge +1.1 ptsmarket-provingChicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers — Under 8 (+100, BetRivers) · model 53.3% · edge +3.3 ptsedge-bandChicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers — Chicago White Sox ML (+103, BetOnline.ag) · model 50.5% · edge +1.3 ptsmarket-provingMiami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds — Over 8.5 (-112, LowVig.ag) · model 55.4% · edge +2.6 ptsmarket-provingColorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants — Under 8 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 56.2% · edge +4.5 ptsmarket-provingTexas Rangers @ Athletics — Under 10 (-113, BetRivers) · model 59.1% · edge +6.0 ptsmarket-provingKansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels — Under 9 (-115, FanDuel) · model 61.4% · edge +7.9 ptsedge-bandKansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels — Los Angeles Angels ML (+104, BetOnline.ag) · model 50.2% · edge +1.2 ptsmarket-provingMilwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 53.1% · edge +4.8 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.