Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox ML (-109, DraftKings) · confidence 50.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.8 pts · 0u
Patrick Sandoval (3.30 ERA, 1.70 WHIP) vs Lake Bachar (3.97 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.4; sim total 8.8 against a 8 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline -112 / +100 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -109 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.3% vs de-vigged market 51.4%: 2.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Patrick Sandoval under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.358 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.045, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 82°F at first pitch: run environment x1.047. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -112 / +100 | -110 / -103 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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