Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-138, FanDuel) · confidence 53.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.7 pts · 0u
Trevor Rogers (4.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) vs Freddy Peralta (5.33 ERA, 1.50 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–4.6; sim total 9.2 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +126 / -140 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -138 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.7% vs de-vigged market 56.9%: 7.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.330 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.017, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+104, LowVig.ag) · model 57.3% · edge +8.3 pts · divergence +9.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +126 / -140 | +120 / -142 |
| Total | 7.5 | 6.5 (o-120 / u-105) |
Capture caveat, verbatim: first capture was after first pitch — weak close.
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+104, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.04u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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