San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
San Diego Padres ML (-105, DraftKings) · confidence 52.3% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.1 pts · 0u
Casey Mize (3.38 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) vs Tanner Bibee (3.99 ERA, 1.13 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–3.8; sim total 8 against a 8 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline -110 / +100 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -105 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.5% vs de-vigged market 51.2%: 2.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.329 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.016, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 82°F at first pitch: run environment x1.050. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.681) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-105, Bovada) · model 57.1% · edge +5.9 pts · divergence +7.8 pts
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): San Diego Padres ML (-105, DraftKings) · model 52.3% · edge +1.1 pts · divergence +2.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -110 / +100 | -110 / -103 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-110 / u-107) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-105, Bovada) — WIN (+0.95u paper).
✅ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): San Diego Padres ML (-105, DraftKings) — WIN (+0.95u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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