Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Mets ML (-159, DraftKings) · confidence 55.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.7 pts · 0u
Jake Irvin (5.79 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) vs Christian Scott (3.45 ERA, 1.30 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.6; sim total 9 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.96.
Market at board time: moneyline +146 / -165 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -159 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.0% vs de-vigged market 60.5%: 9.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.318 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.005, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 81°F at first pitch: run environment x1.043. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +146 / -165 | +146 / -164 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-118 / u-102) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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