Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago White Sox ML (+103, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 50.5% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.3 pts · 0u
Sean Burke (2.99 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) vs Drew Anderson (3.91 ERA, 1.30 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.1; sim total 8.5 against a 8 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +102 / -113 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line +103 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.8% vs de-vigged market 48.3%: 4.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.345 vs league 0.314 (gap -0.031, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 80°F at first pitch: run environment x1.039. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (+100, BetRivers) · model 53.3% · edge +3.3 pts · divergence +3.3 pts
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): Chicago White Sox ML (+103, BetOnline.ag) · model 50.5% · edge +1.3 pts · divergence +4.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +102 / -113 | +103 / -113 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-110 / u-109) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (+100, BetRivers) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
✅ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): Chicago White Sox ML (+103, BetOnline.ag) — WIN (+1.03u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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