Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Angels ML (+104, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 50.2% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.2 pts · 0u
Noah Cameron (4.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) vs Ryan Johnson (6.71 ERA, 1.56 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.6; sim total 8.9 against a 9 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -114 / +100 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line +104 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.0% vs de-vigged market 48.4%: 3.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Ryan Johnson under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.268 trails league 0.314 by 0.046 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (-115, FanDuel) · model 61.4% · edge +7.9 pts · divergence +8.8 pts
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): Los Angeles Angels ML (+104, BetOnline.ag) · model 50.2% · edge +1.2 pts · divergence +3.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -114 / +100 | -114 / +100 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (-115, FanDuel) — WIN (+0.87u paper).
❌ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): Los Angeles Angels ML (+104, BetOnline.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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