Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 run line · confidence 38.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -7.1 pts · 0u
Logan Henderson (2.88 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) vs Tarik Skubal (2.93 ERA, 0.93 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.4; sim total 8.7 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +158 / -180 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -175 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to LAD -1.5 (covers 38.0% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.6% vs de-vigged market 62.4%: 11.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 38.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -7.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Logan Henderson under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.291 vs league 0.314 (gap +0.022, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 53.1% · edge +4.8 pts · divergence +6.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +158 / -180 | +158 / -180 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o+105 / u-123) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.07u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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